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viffer
05-06-2009, 07:17 AM
So I've now hit 10k hands into the PT database which seems like a good time to review. 30% of those hands are in HU play with another 40% 3 or 4 handed. All Limit games

I've discovered something odd. Every suited ace below AJ is a loser eg ATs is -1.28bb/hand, and every non suited A is a winner eg ATo +0.44bb/hand. Overall, 243 suited aces (below AJ) with EV -0.26bb/hand and 822 off suit Ax (below AJ) at +0.31bb/hand.

That is a surprising result. So question, is this a sample size thing do you think? Is this just reflecting some woefull luck (which I feel there has been much) or do I need to seriously re evaluate my play at this stage? If it's a sample thing, then what would be a valid number to be looking at.

Of course, I could just have been lucky with the AXo hands and I am actually as crap at this as my stats suggest

viffer
05-06-2009, 11:30 AM
Hmm, been doing some reading..... 280k is the recommended sample size for HU. Guess we will never know if I can truely beat the game or not.:p

Barton
05-06-2009, 01:01 PM
Of course, I could just have been lucky with the AXo hands and I am actually as crap at this as my stats suggest

Or maybe you chase or raise when you shouldnt on the suited ones.

drep
05-06-2009, 01:37 PM
Yeah 10k HU hands isn't going to to tell you much. The Axs losers are probably a fluke.

viffer
05-06-2009, 02:00 PM
That was my first thought, but I'm not chasing FD's without the odds to do so. I've crammed a few flops when there have been 2 or 3 others in the pot and missed. There are a few bad beats, 3 flopped nut flushes in 1 session lost to runner runner boats etc. but on the face of it, they don't look over played relative to the others.

I'm going to have a review anyway. want to see what my hit rate is on draws. if they are under expectation, then it's bad luck but if they are hitting as expected, then I must review.

I am starting to really struggle with the swings again after a month back and I feel that pissed off feeling coming back again. Started considering jacking it all in again. In the month I've played probably 15k hands and turned my $400 into $2k all at 1/2 limit, but this growth is due to RB. If I'm not beating the game, then I'm not going to enjoy it...

Sorry, this has turned into a pity party...:( .... going to have a few beers!

bcblack182
05-06-2009, 02:36 PM
Beating the game after rakeback means you are beating the game pretty handily, because rake is really freakin high at lhe. If it makes you feel any better when I have started new rolls at 1/2 and 2/4 I usually don't win either, just make rakeback. 3/6 is the lowest level i have ever had a good pre-rakeback winrate at over a big sample size.

Also if you are folding ace high flush draws without odds a lot that is probably a mistake when you consider that your ace high is going to be good a lot of the time and you usually have good implied odds...

10k hands is nothing. I have 10k runs where I win 5 bb/100 and where is lose 3bb/100. Especially when you break it down by hand types, your are just looking at meaningless noise. The only thing I would pay attention to is that you have multiplied your 400 5x already. That means you are killing it. Good job!

Barton
05-06-2009, 04:09 PM
and turned my $400 into $2k all at 1/2 limit, but this growth is due to RB. If I'm not beating the game, then I'm not going to enjoy it...



BC beat me to it. If you are breaking even before rakeback at 1/2 FL you should be on the world poker tour.

I would go even a little more than he did 3/6 isn't easy to beat before rakeback. 5/10FL is where you can start making decent money and pay rake.


I forget all the math I usd to know but you can do statistics on your statistics. In other words when people say you need 280K hands what they are really saying is something like "we can say with 95% certainty that this indicates your true win rate" These formulas all involves squares and stuff so a sample of 10K hands is by no means meaningless, it's probably something like 75% confidence as a wild guess. You could probably find somewhere online that would do all this math for you or any first semester college statistics book would have it.

viffer
05-06-2009, 08:51 PM
Thanks for the encouraging words guys. It helps. Now that I think about it, one of the reasons I play 1/2 is that the rake proportionally is obscenly high. I guess when I last used poker tracker I was used to seeing a 2bb win rate without any rakeback.

I think I need to change sites now. I think my doom switch is stuck permanantly on at my current site.

Thanks again.
V