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Thread: Beaten to death by the variance stick

  1. #1
    Senior Member viffer's Avatar
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    Default Beaten to death by the variance stick

    The pattern I seem to find is grinding away slowly building some ups, some downs and slowly pushing along.... then I get days like today.... dropped 70big bets in 200 hands -35bb/100. It may be my imagination, but I don't think I have ever had a session where I ran positive at that rate or anwhere close to it. I don't think I played bad, in fact I thought I had a better than normal session. Laid down some big hands (correctly) and with good reads made some good calls and value bets with weak hands. Overall, I thought my decision making was good, it was just not my day.

    I flopped a boat and lost to runner runner, Hit top set, capped every street and guys makes a gutshot on the river. I've had 5 sets in those 200 hands and lost them all.... you've heard it all before but this is the aspect of poker that just makes me want to quit (and made me quite last time).

    I did 4k hands this week, which was a lot of poker for me, but was happy with the rake back and the $100 profit I had made. There were up and downs and I expect that.... but 270 hands later and I'm now showing a loss of $320. And this is what pisses me off about the game. Just when you think you have got a handle on the game, the luck aspect comes in and kicks you in the nuts. There was nothing I could do today. But what I don't get is I don't seem to have the corresponding run of good luck. For sure I catch a lucky card from time to time but I don't seem to get a consistent run of luck combined with some idiot capping his gutshot. They only seem to cap crap when they are going to hit.

    Sigh... [/pity_party]
    If you don't make mistakes, you're doing it wrong.
    If you don't correct those mistakes, you're doing it really wrong.
    If you can't accept you're mistaken, then your not doing it at all.

  2. #2

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    Yesterday I went -$300 on 2/5 in 21 hands. I just quit after that. I looked over the hands and i made mistakes that cost me 3bb. So there wasn't much I could do.

    I have periods like this too. But i will post a more serious post later I have had alot of thoughts about things like this.

  3. #3
    Senior Member viffer's Avatar
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    Been thinking about this a bit more and I wonder if our style of play (ie good) has got a lot to do with it. We can sucumb to bad luck... we are way ahead and some idiot relying on luck hits some wierd runner runner gutshot. We put our money in when we are good and can get unlucky. But, unless we are trying to make a move of some sort, we rarely put our money in bad. We don't benefit from the corresponding good luck... an example from the other day...

    UTG limps in to my AA on the button, I raise it up, blinds fold and he calls. Flop is KQ8r and he donks into me, I raise it up. turn 7, he calls river 3 and he check raises me on the river to show 73. So here is a hand that I get unlucky I brush it off and move on eager for the next hand that he can make bad calls to. My point is that i would never be around in the hand to be on the corresponding lucky side. Even if I saw a flop out the blind, with 73 to this board, I'm not see the turn... ever.

    What gets me though is, I'm OK with the ebb and flow at "normal" levels, I play good solid poker for hours and hours and things swing up and down but generally keeps marching in the right direction. But these downswings can be so devastating and it is down to nothing other than bad luck. I don't have 70big bet upswings over the short term, so I know it's going to take many more hours to get back to where I was on Saturday. All the time facing the risk of walking into another "unlucky" day. These downswings come often enough for me to make them hurt.

    I know I'm whinning (which is why it's in the Bad Beat section), but do you guys experience this? what do you do about it? It's the bit that spoils my enjoyment and gets me hovering over the cashout button.
    If you don't make mistakes, you're doing it wrong.
    If you don't correct those mistakes, you're doing it really wrong.
    If you can't accept you're mistaken, then your not doing it at all.

  4. #4
    Moderator Barton's Avatar
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    I don't think the "play good" theory works. If you were a chasing donkey you would have a mega rush once in a while, but -70 BB would be nothing, you would have plenty of -200BB sessions.

    My theory is it's because we are online. When I played at the casino, my big wins were comparable to my big losses.

    Digression: I had one session at the casino where I won $6,200 playing 15/30.... over 200 BB Biggest win I ever had, not a week later I lost $6,400 at the same 15/30.

    Online I would say without exageration, my 50 biggest moves have all been negative. The only reason I can come up with is that when I'm losing I get pissed and keep playing, but when I'm winning, I figure I made my days pay and go do something more fun. (I know, I know, that's moronic).

    I can only remember one super rush online, I was playing 2/4, I sat down and won 21 of the first 25 hands and 100% of my showdowns + 400$. Then everyone quit saying online poker is rigged or that I was a bot.

  5. #5
    Senior Member viffer's Avatar
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    Got to shake this mood.... Poker tracker can give some solace...

    Typical session last night, finished up but had this one

    ***** Hand History for Game 652695015 *****
    $2.50/$5 Texas Hold'em - Monday, February 15, 23:05:25 GMT 2010
    Table Zonda 02 6-max (Real Money)
    Seat 5 is the button
    Total number of active players : 4
    Seat 1: ( $291.25 )
    Seat 3: VILLIAN ( $172.50 )
    Seat 4: Hero ( $155 )
    Seat 5: ( $122.50 )
    Seat 1 posts small blind [$1.25]
    VILLIAN posts big blind [$2.50]
    ** Dealing down cards **
    Dealt to Hero [ Ad, Kd ]
    Hero raises to [$5]
    Seat 5 folds
    Seat 1 folds
    VILLIAN calls [$2.50]
    ** Dealing Flop ** [ 7h, 7d, 8d ]
    VILLIAN checks
    Hero bets [$2.50]
    VILLIAN raises to [$5]
    Hero raises to [$7.50]
    VILLIAN raises to [$10]
    Hero calls [$2.50]
    ** Dealing Turn ** [ 9d ]
    VILLIAN bets [$5]
    Hero raises to [$10]
    VILLIAN calls [$5]
    ** Dealing River ** [ 7s ]
    VILLIAN bets [$5]
    Hero calls [$5]
    ** Showdown **
    VILLIAN shows [ Js, 9s ] full house, Sevens full of Nines
    Hero mucks [ Ad, Kd ]
    ** Hand Conclusion **
    VILLIAN wins $59.25 from main pot with full house, Sevens full of Nines
    ************ Game 652695015 ends ************
    He handed me my ass last night with several similar lucky hands... and my mood just darkens. I don't think it tilts my play but it has me gloomy and pondering the futility of it all.

    Poker tracker to the rescue...Just reviewing the session and looked up Villian...I've 800 hands on him and he is 65%/30% and running -13bb/100. And in the 800 hands we've played, I'm $140 in profit against him.... So he is contributing at 3.5bb/100. Hope he is playing tonight .

    Barton, I think I am the opposite to you, and that is contributing to my losses. When I take a downswing like that, even if it's 50 hands, I stop. I fear tilt so just take the loss.... when I'm up, I'm enjoying it so play for longer... But sometimes I can watch a nice profit dwindle away and then I stop at break even or small profit. Might be more sensible to just set myself a number of hands / hours target and quit at that point regardless of result.
    Last edited by viffer; 02-16-2010 at 06:50 AM.
    If you don't make mistakes, you're doing it wrong.
    If you don't correct those mistakes, you're doing it really wrong.
    If you can't accept you're mistaken, then your not doing it at all.

  6. #6
    Senior Member viffer's Avatar
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    Too late to edit ... it's 1.8 Big Bets/ 100 rather than the 3.5 big blinds I said..(samething, but still)
    If you don't make mistakes, you're doing it wrong.
    If you don't correct those mistakes, you're doing it really wrong.
    If you can't accept you're mistaken, then your not doing it at all.

  7. #7
    Senior Member viffer's Avatar
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    Said to myself 2 hours quit regardless...15 minutes later

    50 hands -50 big bets

    Nope, can't do it... can't stay at the table.
    If you don't make mistakes, you're doing it wrong.
    If you don't correct those mistakes, you're doing it really wrong.
    If you can't accept you're mistaken, then your not doing it at all.

  8. #8
    Senior Member viffer's Avatar
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    Fuck it... 400 hands -$560... cashout time again... i don't like the way this game makes me feel...

    GG guys
    If you don't make mistakes, you're doing it wrong.
    If you don't correct those mistakes, you're doing it really wrong.
    If you can't accept you're mistaken, then your not doing it at all.

  9. #9

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    play nl

  10. #10
    Senior Member viffer's Avatar
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    I'm even worse at NL
    If you don't make mistakes, you're doing it wrong.
    If you don't correct those mistakes, you're doing it really wrong.
    If you can't accept you're mistaken, then your not doing it at all.

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